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uk.sci.weather |
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| Author: |
"Darren Prescott" |
| Subject: |
Today's model interpretation (16/05/08) |
| Body: |
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0517z, 16th May 2008
The middle of the week will see low pressure moving slowly closer to the UK
from the west, with strengthening southerly winds and possibly some rain in
the west. ECM then brings rain across the UK for the weekend, while GFS
keeps the rain in the west with gusty SE'lies elsewhere.
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A slack northerly flow covers the UK, with low pressure to the south. The
winds become NE'lies tomorrow as pressure falls to the south, with further
NE'lies on Sunday. By Monday a ridge covers Scotland, leading to SE'lies for
Northern Ireland and NE'lies persisting elsewhere.
T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart continues to show a slack pattern over the North
Atlantic, with a weak ridge over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's also a
ridge over the UK, with lows to the NE and west. MetO has a ridge over the
UK and ECM brings a ridge as well. GEM has a weaker ridge than ECM and MetO.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge from the north over eastern areas of the
UK, with ENE'lies for SE England and SE'lies elsewhere. MetO is very
similar, although the ridge is slightly further west. ECM brings light winds
and a ridge over the UK and GEM has a ridge over the UK as well, with
NE'lies across much of England and Wales.
Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM sees SE'lies and SSE'lies, as the ridge moves eastwards. On
day 7 southerlies cover the UK, the result of complex low pressure to the
west.
GFS brings SE'lies as well on day 6, due to a ridge to the east. Pressure
builds to the NE on day 7, leading to a mixture of SSE'lies and easterlies
over the UK.
Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM the low to the west moves closer, with strong southerlies
for all. A trough crosses the UK on day 9 and on day 10 the UK lies under a
cooler westeriy or WSW'ly flow.
GFS shows SE'lies for all on day 8 with a low close to the west. The SE'lies
persist on day 9 and by day 10 a ridge builds from the SW, bringing light
winds for England and Wales and southerlies elsewhere.
Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres)
The ensembles show a few cool days coming up, before temperatures aloft rise
to above-average again.
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| Topic: |
Today's model interpretation (16/05/08) |
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| Message: |
Author |
Date |
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*Message 1* |
Darren Prescott |
Thu, 15 May 2008, 10:18 pm |
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